# 01. SuperSurv with Ensemble

## Introduction

The core feature of the `SuperSurv` package is its ability to combine multiple base survival learners into a highly predictive meta-ensemble. This tutorial walks through preparing data, defining a library of models, fitting the Super Learner, and generating predictions for new patients.

## 1. Load Data & Prepare Matrices

We will use the built-in `metabric` dataset, extracting the covariates and performing a standard 80/20 train-test split.

    library(SuperSurv)
    library(survival)

    # Load built-in METABRIC data
    data("metabric", package = "SuperSurv")

    # Quick 80/20 Train-Test split
    set.seed(42)
    n_total <- nrow(metabric)
    train_idx <- sample(1:n_total, 0.8 * n_total)

    train <- metabric[train_idx, ]
    test  <- metabric[-train_idx, ]

    # Extract just the X covariates (assuming they are named x0, x1, etc.)
    x_cols <- grep("^x", names(metabric), value = TRUE)
    X_tr <- train[, x_cols]
    X_te <- test[, x_cols]

    # Define the prediction time grid (e.g., survival at 50, 100, 150, 200 months)
    new.times <- c(50, 100, 150, 200)

## 2. Define the Ensemble Library

We define a library of base survival models. For this quick demonstration, we use lightning-fast parametric and tree-based models.

    my_library <- c("surv.coxph", "surv.weibull", "surv.rpart")

## 3. Train the SuperSurv Metalearner

Before we run the main `SuperSurv` engine, it is important to understand its key parameters. The Super Learner algorithm relies on cross-validation to assign weights to the base models, and it must model both the event and the censoring mechanism to avoid biased evaluations.

Here is the complete guide to the arguments you need to pass:

### The Data Inputs

- `time`: A numeric vector of the observed follow-up times for your training cohort.
- `event`: A numeric vector indicating the status at the observed time (typically `1` = event occurred, `0` = right-censored).
- `X`: A `data.frame` or matrix containing only the predictor variables (covariates) for the training set. Do not include the time or event columns here!
- `newdata`: (Optional) A `data.frame` of covariates for a validation or test set. If provided, `SuperSurv` will immediately generate predictions for these patients during the training phase, saving you a step.
- `new.times`: A numeric vector defining the exact time points where you want survival probabilities predicted (e.g., `seq(50, 200, by = 25)`).

### The Model Libraries

- `event.library`: A character vector of the base algorithms used to predict the actual survival outcome (e.g., `"surv.coxph"`, `"surv.rpart"`).
- `cens.library`: The library used to estimate the censoring mechanism over time. `SuperSurv` uses these predictions to calculate Inverse Probability of Censoring Weights (IPCW). You can use the exact same library as your event models, or a simpler one.

### The Meta-Learner & Tuning

- `metalearner`: The optimization algorithm used to calculate the final ensemble weights. `SuperSurv` offers two distinct approaches:
  - `"brier"` (Default): Optimizes weights by minimizing the IPCW Brier score. Excellent for overall prediction accuracy.
  - `"logloss"`: Optimizes weights by minimizing the negative log-likelihood. Excellent for improving hazard discrimination.
- `nFolds`: The number of cross-validation folds used to train the meta-learner. `V = 5` or `V = 10` is standard. This cross-validation is what prevents the ensemble from overfitting to the base learners.
- `control = list(saveFitLibrary = TRUE)`: This tells the engine to save the fitted base learners into the final object. This is required if you want to use the `predict()` method on new patients later.
- `verbose`: Set to `TRUE` to print progress messages to the console. Highly recommended for large datasets or complex libraries so you can track the cross-validation progress.

Let’s fit two models with `verbose = FALSE` to see how the meta-learner choice affects the final ensemble weights.

    # Fit 1: Least Squares Meta-learner
    fit_ls <- SuperSurv(
      time = train$duration,
      event = train$event,
      X = X_tr,
      newdata = X_te,                 # Predict on the test set immediately
      new.times = new.times,       # Our evaluation time grid
      event.library = my_library,
      cens.library = my_library,
      metalearner = "brier",
      control = list(saveFitLibrary = TRUE),
      verbose = T,             # Turn to TRUE in practice to see progress!
      selection = "ensemble",
      nFolds = 5                   # 5-fold CV for the meta-learner
    )

    # Fit 2: Negative Log-Likelihood Meta-learner
    fit_nll <- SuperSurv(
      time = train$duration,
      event = train$event,
      X = X_tr,
      newdata = X_te,
      new.times = new.times,
      event.library = my_library,
      cens.library = my_library,
      metalearner = "logloss",       # Swap to nloglik
      control = list(saveFitLibrary = TRUE),
      verbose = FALSE,
      selection = "ensemble",
      nFolds = 5
    )

## 4. Package Object Interface

`SuperSurv` fits behave like ordinary R model objects. Use the print and summary methods for a quick overview, and use accessors for common fitted-model details.

    fit_ls
    #> SuperSurv fit
    #>   Selection: ensemble
    #>   Event learners: 3
    #>   Censoring learners: 3
    #>   Predictions: 381 observations x 4 times
    #>   Evaluation times: 4 values from 50 to 200
    #>   Nonzero event weights:
    #> surv.weibull_screen.all   surv.coxph_screen.all   surv.rpart_screen.all
    #>                  0.5906                  0.2344                  0.1750

    summary(fit_ls)
    #> Summary of SuperSurv fit
    #>   Selection: ensemble
    #>
    #> Call:
    #> SuperSurv(time = train$duration, event = train$event, X = X_tr,
    #>     newdata = X_te, new.times = new.times, event.library = my_library,
    #>     cens.library = my_library, verbose = T, control = list(saveFitLibrary = TRUE),
    #>     metalearner = "brier", selection = "ensemble", nFolds = 5)
    #>
    #> Event ensemble:
    #>                  learner weight   risk status
    #>  surv.weibull_screen.all 0.5906 0.4854     ok
    #>    surv.coxph_screen.all 0.2344 0.4856     ok
    #>    surv.rpart_screen.all 0.1750 0.4958     ok
    #>
    #> Censoring ensemble:
    #>                  learner weight   risk status
    #>    surv.coxph_screen.all 0.0689 1.0627     ok
    #>  surv.weibull_screen.all 0.5611 1.0720     ok
    #>    surv.rpart_screen.all 0.3700 1.0754     ok
    #>
    #> Predictions: 381 observations x 4 times
    #> Evaluation times: 4 values from 50 to 200
    #> Elapsed time (seconds):
    #> everything      train    predict
    #>      1.410      1.307      0.103

    event_weights(fit_ls)
    #>   surv.coxph_screen.all surv.weibull_screen.all   surv.rpart_screen.all
    #>               0.2344382               0.5906097               0.1749521

    learner_names(fit_ls)
    #> [1] "surv.coxph_screen.all"   "surv.weibull_screen.all"
    #> [3] "surv.rpart_screen.all"

    eval_times(fit_ls)
    #> [1]  50 100 150 200

    selected_variables(fit_ls, learner = 1)
    #> [1] "x0" "x1" "x2" "x3" "x4" "x5" "x6" "x7" "x8"

## 5. Inspect the Ensemble Weights and Risks

The defining feature of the Super Learner is that it does not just pick the single “best” model; it finds the optimal weighted combination of all models based on their cross-validated performance.

Let’s inspect the weights and cross-validated risks for both of our meta-learners.

    cat("\n--- LEAST SQUARES METALEARNER ---\n")
    #>
    #> --- LEAST SQUARES METALEARNER ---
    summary(fit_ls)
    #> Summary of SuperSurv fit
    #>   Selection: ensemble
    #>
    #> Call:
    #> SuperSurv(time = train$duration, event = train$event, X = X_tr,
    #>     newdata = X_te, new.times = new.times, event.library = my_library,
    #>     cens.library = my_library, verbose = T, control = list(saveFitLibrary = TRUE),
    #>     metalearner = "brier", selection = "ensemble", nFolds = 5)
    #>
    #> Event ensemble:
    #>                  learner weight   risk status
    #>  surv.weibull_screen.all 0.5906 0.4854     ok
    #>    surv.coxph_screen.all 0.2344 0.4856     ok
    #>    surv.rpart_screen.all 0.1750 0.4958     ok
    #>
    #> Censoring ensemble:
    #>                  learner weight   risk status
    #>    surv.coxph_screen.all 0.0689 1.0627     ok
    #>  surv.weibull_screen.all 0.5611 1.0720     ok
    #>    surv.rpart_screen.all 0.3700 1.0754     ok
    #>
    #> Predictions: 381 observations x 4 times
    #> Evaluation times: 4 values from 50 to 200
    #> Elapsed time (seconds):
    #> everything      train    predict
    #>      1.410      1.307      0.103

    cat("\n--- NLOGLIK METALEARNER ---\n")
    #>
    #> --- NLOGLIK METALEARNER ---
    summary(fit_nll)
    #> Summary of SuperSurv fit
    #>   Selection: ensemble
    #>
    #> Call:
    #> SuperSurv(time = train$duration, event = train$event, X = X_tr,
    #>     newdata = X_te, new.times = new.times, event.library = my_library,
    #>     cens.library = my_library, verbose = FALSE, control = list(saveFitLibrary = TRUE),
    #>     metalearner = "logloss", selection = "ensemble", nFolds = 5)
    #>
    #> Event ensemble:
    #>                  learner weight   risk status
    #>    surv.coxph_screen.all 0.9929 0.4520     ok
    #>  surv.weibull_screen.all 0.0042 0.4583     ok
    #>    surv.rpart_screen.all 0.0029 0.4800     ok
    #>
    #> Censoring ensemble:
    #>                  learner weight   risk status
    #>    surv.coxph_screen.all 0.0563 1.0840     ok
    #>    surv.rpart_screen.all 0.4646 1.0848     ok
    #>  surv.weibull_screen.all 0.4790 1.0932     ok
    #>
    #> Predictions: 381 observations x 4 times
    #> Evaluation times: 4 values from 50 to 200
    #> Elapsed time (seconds):
    #> everything      train    predict
    #>      6.643      6.541      0.101

### How to Interpret This:

- `event_weights(fit)`: These are the final weights assigned to each base learner. A weight of `0` means the meta-learner completely dropped that model because it did not contribute to overall predictive accuracy. A high weight means that model heavily influences the final ensemble prediction. Notice how the `least_squares` and `nloglik` algorithms might distribute these weights differently based on their optimization goals!
- `summary(fit)`: This reports the cross-validated risk for each individual base learner. The meta-learner uses these risks to calculate the optimal weights. Lower risk always indicates better performance.

## 6. Generating Predictions on New Data

If you passed `newdata` during the training phase, `SuperSurv` already calculated the predictions for your test set. However, in a real-world clinical setting, you will often train the model once and then predict on brand new patients months later.

Because we set `control = list(saveFitLibrary = TRUE)` during training, we can use the standard R `predict()` method.

    # Select 3 brand new patients from our test set
    new_patients <- X_te[1:6, ]

    # Generate predictions using the Least Squares ensemble
    ensemble_preds <- predict(
      object = fit_ls,
      newdata = new_patients,
      new.times = new.times,
      type = "event"
    )

    cat("\n--- PREDICTED SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES ---\n")
    #>
    #> --- PREDICTED SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES ---
    final_matrix <- ensemble_preds
    colnames(final_matrix) <- paste0("Time_", new.times)
    rownames(final_matrix) <- paste0("Patient_", 1:6)

    print(round(final_matrix, 4))
    #>           Time_50 Time_100 Time_150 Time_200
    #> Patient_1  0.7910   0.5800   0.4053   0.2717
    #> Patient_2  0.9249   0.8344   0.7404   0.6473
    #> Patient_3  0.9054   0.8000   0.6948   0.5944
    #> Patient_4  0.8369   0.6624   0.5048   0.3720
    #> Patient_5  0.8552   0.6974   0.5504   0.4219
    #> Patient_6  0.7321   0.4865   0.3026   0.1775

### Understanding the Output Matrix:

The `predict()` function returns a list, but the most important element is `event.SL.predict`. * Rows (\(N\)): Represent individual patients. * Columns (\(T\)): Represent the specific time points we defined in `new.times`. * Values: The estimated probability that the patient will survive past that specific time point. As time increases (moving left to right across a row), the survival probability naturally decreases.

## 7. Visualizing Patient-Specific Predictions

While raw probability matrices (\(N \times T\)) are perfect for downstream coding and performance benchmarking, they are difficult to interpret clinically. Doctors and researchers need to see the actual survival trajectories.

`SuperSurv` includes a built-in `plot_predict()` function to effortlessly translate this matrix into publication-ready survival curves for individual patients.

    # Plot the predicted survival curves for our 3 new patients (Rows 1, 2, and 3)
    plot_predict(
      preds = ensemble_preds,
      eval_times = new.times,
      patient_idx = 1:6
    )

## 8. Next Steps

You now know how to prepare data, define a model library, choose a meta-learner, and generate patient-specific survival curves.

However, before deploying a model in clinical practice, you must rigorously prove that the ensemble actually outperforms the individual base learners. Head over to Tutorial 2: Model Performance & Benchmarking to learn how to generate time-dependent Brier Score, AUC, and Uno’s C-index plots!